Trump did better than anyone had expected in the New Hampshire primary.
However, it is far from certain that he will be the republican nominee.
In more than one way, these primaries have become a contest between the establishment, and outsiders; and between Trump and non-Trump.
Only a few months ago, the outsiders (Trump, Carson and Fiorina) enjoyed a solid majority of almost 60 percent.
That advantage has now shrunk to 41 percent: Trump 35 percent, Fiorina 4 percent, Carson 2 percent.
When Carson and Fiorina get out of the race, which they both should, Trump will be the sole outsider candidate.
This in itself is a major development.
What’s of even more significance is that as candidates fade, or drop out of the race, their followers gravitate towards establishment candidates, and NOT towards Trump.
If, or when the contest gets down to a race between Trump and an establishment candidate, Trump will lose.
The most likely outcome is that the establishment candidate will be one of the two remaining governors, Kasich or Bush.
Karsten Malmos, Medford
